Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 32.889970 36.518411 40.582178 45.511965 51.387145 58.238312 66.943095
2025-07-13 27.305588 31.990587 37.694389 45.304108 55.442395 68.883273 88.802898
2025-07-20 23.783226 28.975817 35.704720 45.381599 59.538054 80.613124 117.007361
2025-07-27 21.508474 27.034382 34.568183 46.115482 64.483730 95.040420 157.027118
2025-08-03 19.507583 25.101019 33.028708 45.808544 67.597544 107.569051 202.332571
2025-08-10 17.921028 23.505874 31.680189 45.436975 70.378485 120.521534 260.065892
2025-08-17 16.743842 22.342950 30.781105 45.562516 73.998729 136.752756 345.904315
2025-08-24 15.634193 21.151374 29.664752 45.080016 76.274359 151.125335 449.801426
2025-08-31 14.699598 20.130156 28.688017 44.656750 78.534536 166.772196 595.533405
2025-09-07 13.879908 19.211318 27.770605 44.179589 80.543210 183.072728 800.743454
2025-09-14 13.204239 18.462102 27.054829 43.966561 83.109933 203.011162 1137.746716
2025-09-21 12.538641 17.676878 26.197673 43.339007 84.512421 220.307098 1604.402877
2025-09-28 12.348820 17.666871 26.719889 45.674782 94.497372 281.278686 4151.793083
2025-10-05 11.817048 17.049019 26.091360 45.475049 97.569188 317.151963 9385.656778
2025-10-12 11.369814 16.542898 25.621137 45.556703 101.578122 364.636205 40559.470268
2025-10-19 11.040521 16.214851 25.451423 46.296353 107.997441 439.565416 NaN
2025-10-26 10.618877 15.697902 24.873631 45.988242 110.908236 498.691718 NaN
2025-11-02 10.224723 15.205299 24.302139 45.614753 113.534425 564.617788 NaN
2025-11-09 9.913092 14.840517 23.952020 45.741124 118.144136 667.147523 NaN
2025-11-16 9.563654 14.388168 23.391510 45.255857 120.276106 754.620475 NaN
2025-11-23 9.244757 13.974439 22.879148 44.830157 122.579224 860.265495 NaN
2025-11-30 8.942512 13.575986 22.370279 44.350253 124.557051 978.713438 NaN
2025-12-07 8.683713 13.244699 21.977570 44.136005 127.724303 1150.011679 NaN